Legacy Institutions Are Collapsing...

The Future Of Home Sales Is Changing, Walgreens Is Closing 1200 Stores, BlackRock Has Big Bitcoin Plans and True Value Has Filed For Bankruptcy...

The Daily Ninja 10/15/24

🏠 Historical data suggests a 4-year housing market slowdown starting in 2024, mirroring the 2008-2023 cycle, with recent home data worse than expected despite forecasts of a 2024 turnaround.

πŸ’° Banks are pricing in risk by charging 0.5% more for mortgages despite 7-6.5% rates, indicating their reluctance to lend and awareness of poor market conditions.

πŸ“Š Expensive home market trends (days on market, price drops) are key indicators of consumer affordability and overall market direction, more so than cheaper homes.

🏦 The collapse in home sales is primarily due to banks' reluctance to lend sufficiently for mortgages, despite high interest rates, as they anticipate market risks.

πŸ“š The "Mortgage Master course" offers 80% off to teach becoming a prime borrower, potentially saving thousands in escrow and securing better rates over a 3-year period.

πŸͺ Walgreens plans to close 1,200 stores over the next 3 years, primarily in the US, as part of its footprint optimization program to reduce costs and turnaround operations under new leadership.

πŸ’Ό The economy is showing signs of strain, with Empire manufacturing falling from a 30-month high to a 5-month low in October, and the New York Fed's gauge of prices paid for materials increasing to a 6-month high of 29.

😷 Mass mandates are set to return in several California counties, including the San Francisco Bay Area, starting in February 2023, primarily affecting healthcare workers but extending to visitors and patients in some areas.

🏘️ The Economic Ninja has been studying real estate cycles for 15-16 years and predicts that 2023 will mark the beginning of a 1.5 to 2-year cycle that could be profitable for investors.

πŸ’° K-pop is reportedly offering $20,000 forgivable loans to black men, which is viewed as a potential vote-buying tactic and part of an opportunity agenda.

🏦 BlackRock's Bitcoin ETFs have propelled the asset manager to reach $11 trillion in assets under management for the first time, offering investors crypto exposure without exchange risks or self-custody.

πŸ’Ό CEO Larry Fink views Bitcoin as an asset class alternative to gold, predicting it will integrate with artificial intelligence in the future.

πŸ”’ BlackRock's Bitcoin ETFs are deemed unsuitable for individual self-custody, with the company implementing supervision to prevent losses.

πŸ“ˆ Anthony Scaramucci, founder of Skybridge Capital, considers BlackRock's Bitcoin ETFs positive for the market and predicts Bitcoin could reach $170,000 in the next cycle.

πŸ”„ The Ninja repeatedly emphasizes that BlackRock's Bitcoin ETFs are not suitable for individual investors to custody themselves, highlighting the company's focus on institutional management and risk mitigation.

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πŸ—οΈ True Value, a 75-year-old hardware wholesaler, filed for bankruptcy and plans to sell to rival Do It Best for $153 million in cash plus $45 million in assumed obligations.

πŸ’Ό The bankruptcy likely results in employee layoffs, though Do It Best agreed to hire some True Value staff, contributing to the ongoing trend of job losses in the retail sector.

🏚️ True Value's failure, alongside iconic retailers like Sears, JC Penney, and Kmart, signals a weak economy despite these companies surviving past crises like the Great Depression and 1929 crash.

🦠 The COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated the downfall of long-standing retail businesses, highlighting the unprecedented challenges faced by traditional brick-and-mortar stores.

πŸ“‰ This bankruptcy serves as a warning sign for potential future economic troubles, suggesting more established companies may face similar fates in the coming months or years.

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