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Mortgage Rates Keep Climbing, The FEDs Seize A Bank, Target Exec Issues Warning, Is There a Bank Run Happening?, Cuba Faces Blackouts, And Warren Buffett Makes Moves and More...
Economic Ninja
October 21, 2024
The Daily Ninja 10/21/24
🏠 Mortgage rates are climbing, with the 10-year treasury yield up 5.44 basis points to 4.13%, while newly listed $1 million homes are offering $15-16,000 in rate buy-downs to attract buyers.
🛢️ US stock futures are dropping as investors await company earnings, while oil prices climb and gold hits record highs due to escalating Middle East tensions.
✈️ Boeing stock rose 3% after reaching a tentative agreement with union workers for a 35% pay raise over four years, despite ongoing layoffs and potential future cuts.
🔋 Lithium and electric vehicle stocks are declining due to lower-than-expected demand for battery-powered cars, with energy prices projected to rise depending on election outcomes.
💼 The Economic Ninja suggests that market crashes and recessions can be opportune times to start businesses, offering a course on LLC and corporation tips for $10.
🏦 The FDIC is facing insolvency with a preliminary cost of bank failures at $43 million, receiving a temporary boost from the federal government in July 2023 to manage the crisis.
💼 In 2023, 80% of bank accounts were uninsurable by the FDIC, depending on the type and amount of money in them.
📅 By 2025, the FDIC plans to stop insuring banks, with only 50% of uninsured deposits expected to be available.
🏢 Banks are failing primarily due to corporate debt and commercial real estate debt, with 82% of depositors exceeding FDIC insurance limits.
💰 The FDIC is managing failed banks by putting bad assets on their balance sheet and planning to auction them off for pennies on the dollar.
💰 Former Target executive Gerald Storch warns consumers are running out of money, with spending growth below inflation rates and a short 2022 holiday season making 2.5% growth good and 4%+ ideal.
🏘️ The true state of the real estate market is expected to be revealed in spring 2023, potentially causing significant economic disruption.
📉 A trade down phenomenon similar to the 2008 financial crisis is occurring across both high-end and low-end consumer segments.
🤥 The government is allegedly misrepresenting job numbers and retail sales data, misleading the public about the true state of the economy.
💼 The Economic Ninja offers $10 courses on starting LLCs and corporations, promoting side hustles as preparation for a potential economic crash.
🏦 US banks experienced their largest weekly deposit outflow since the Silicon Valley Bank crisis, with $69 billion withdrawn in October 2023, erasing prior two weeks of inflows.
💼 Institutional investors pulled $85 billion from US domestic banks in October 2023, marking the worst outflow since the 2008 financial crisis.
🏛️ The Federal Reserve and FDIC are providing emergency loans to banks, with the FDIC's bailout facility shrinking by $2 billion in October 2023, indicating a potential systemic crisis in the US banking system.
🏠 An attorney from Texas reported a staggering pace of HUD foreclosures in June 2023, suggesting a potential real estate market crash that the government may be concealing from the public.
💣 The current economic situation is described as a systemic collapse that has been ongoing for months, with 99% of the impact of a crisis attributed to the reaction rather than the crisis itself.
🌎 Cuba's nationwide power outage occurred just two weeks after officially requesting to join BRICS, a group consolidating as a key player in global geopolitics and a beacon of hope for Southern countries.
🏭 The blackout happened days after the government announced emergency measures to reduce electricity use, amid what experts called the worst electricity crisis in Cuba's history.
🌐 BRICS, officially formed by Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa since January 1, 2024, has been expanding to include countries like Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, and UAE.
🇷🇺 Russia will chair the upcoming BRICS Summit in Kazan city from October 22-24, just two days before Cuba's power outage.
🔌 Cuba's power grid failure may have been intentionally caused to push an energy agenda, as the country had been experiencing fuel shortages and 15-20 hour power outages for weeks prior.
🏦 Bank of America analyst predicts gold prices to reach $3,000 by 2025, citing it as the ultimate perceived Safe Haven asset amid concerns over US fiscal policies and their impact on Treasury yields.
🥈 The silver to gold ratio is plummeting, with 82 silver ounces now needed to buy 1 ounce of gold, indicating silver's price is rising faster than gold's.
📈 Silver has surged almost 7%, breaking through $33 and approaching $34, while gold hits all-time highs, suggesting potential for significant profits in silver investments.
💹 Federal Reserve rate cuts have triggered a surge in inflation expectations, with 10-year real yields declining through September, potentially leading to overshooting inflation.
🗓️ The Federal Reserve is expected to implement rate cuts after the election, marking an unprecedented move as it has never lowered rates before an election in history.
🏆 Silver is considered the best investment at its current price, having outperformed gold by 100% since November 2022, but investors are advised against buying at market highs.
💰 In the next 4-5 years, gold prices may reach $3,000-$4,000 per ounce, while silver could hit $50-$60 per ounce.
📉 The narrator predicts an economic crash worse than the 2008 crisis, with the stock market falling 50% and real estate dropping 50% in large cities.
💼 Preparing for economic collapse involves starting a small, debt-free business and investing in silver and gold, as wealthy individuals are liquidating stocks and assets.
💵 The economic collapse is expected to widen the wealth gap, with the rich getting richer and the poor getting poorer, as described in the Book of Proverbs.
📈 The business cycle alternates between periods of expansion and contraction, offering opportunities to buy distressed assets like businesses, inventory, and real estate at low prices during downturns.
💼 During the Great Recession, the author adapted by switching from flipping homes to flipping palm trees, earning $50,000-$100,000 per year and demonstrating the potential for success in economic downturns.
🏢 The author is preparing for a potential real estate crash by creating a fund with other investors to acquire commercial real estate assets as they collapse, anticipating low vacancy rates and plummeting interest rates.
🏘️ The Ninja’s 2-year thesis predicts that after interest rates rise, they will plummet, creating opportunities in both commercial and residential real estate markets.
💹 While deflation is occurring in some asset classes, food and energy prices continue to rise, highlighting the importance of understanding market dynamics during different phases of the business cycle.
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